Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 60.4% red zone pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a terrific 71.2% Completion%, ranking in the 85th percentile.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the best touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.05 per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season (68.8%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the league: 1.37 per game since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.