Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 5th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.56 per game this year.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks profile as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 66.0%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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