Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-127/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the top touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging an impressive 1.60 per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in football versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (72.1%).

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense as the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Aaron Rodgers's throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 66.2%.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 6th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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