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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 60.8% red zone pass rate.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the best TD passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 1.64 per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 35.3 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

Aaron Rodgers's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 66.3%.

The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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