Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 1.69 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 32.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Aaron Rodgers's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.8% to 65.7%.

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