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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.3% red zone pass rate.

The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the top TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 1.73 per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Aaron Rodgers's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.6% to 66.2%.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest level in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.8%).

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 5th-least TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game this year.

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