Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 4:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 43.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (7.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.9% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to earn 2.0 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Aaron Rodgers has picked up just 3.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest figures in the league among quarterbacks (22nd percentile).
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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