Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (7.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.5% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to accumulate 1.7 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 90 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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