Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (6.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.9% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Aaron Rodgers's rushing efficiency (5.60 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (75th percentile among QBs).
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to total 1.5 carries in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers has averaged a mere 5.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the lowest figures in the league among QBs (17th percentile).

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