Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (6.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.0% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to garner 1.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers has grinded out a measly 5.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among QBs (21st percentile).