Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (6.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.2% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to accrue 1.7 carries this week, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the bottom quarterbacks in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging just 0.50 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 9th percentile.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 82 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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