Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 15, 2024 8:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 224.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.6% pass rate.
In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the model to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.2.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (280.0 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
The 10th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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