Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 236.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 231.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 7.31 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.