Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 246.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 230.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the best quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 251.0 yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a terrific 71.2% Completion%, ranking in the 85th percentile.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 7.58 yards-per-target while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season (68.8%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.