Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Passing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 253.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 254.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in the league (263.0 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.82 yards-per-target: the most in the league.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks profile as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (230.0) this season than he did last season (269.0).
Aaron Rodgers's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 66.0%.
Aaron Rodgers's passing effectiveness has worsened this season, compiling a measly 7.14 yards-per-target compared to a 8.17 figure last season.

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