Aaron Rodgers Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Interceptions

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 39.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown a measly 0.44 interceptions per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Buffalo Bills have intercepted 1.46 targets per game this year, ranking as the best defense in the NFL by this stat.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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