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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Completions
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.6% pass rate.

In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the model to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.2.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the league vs. the Jaguars defense this year (74.5% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.

The 10th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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