Aaron Rodgers Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Completions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Rodgers has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 73.4% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (65.8%).

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