Aaron Rodgers Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Completions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks profile as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 66.0%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.