Aaron Rodgers Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Completions

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+114/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year (74.0%).
The Tennessee Titans pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 32.9 passes this week, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers's throwing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.6% to 66.7%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

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