Aaron Rodgers Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Carries

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2024

Updated Oct 15, 2024 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL (34.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the New York Jets.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Aaron Rodgers has been much more involved in his team's run game this year (10.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (0.0%).
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Buffalo's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see just 123.6 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a lowly 46.2 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to total 2.3 carries in this week's game, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.

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