Aaron Rodgers Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 7, 2024 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
Aaron Rodgers has been a much bigger part of his offense's run game this season (10.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (0.0%).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New York Jets as the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.9% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is anticipated by the predictive model to garner the 10th-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 2.3.
The Minnesota defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best DT corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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