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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

Aaron Jones has earned 47.2% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Aaron Jones has grinded out 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (88th percentile).

Aaron Jones's ground efficiency (5.44 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (88th percentile among RBs).

Aaron Jones checks in as one of the leading running backs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an outstanding 4.17 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to run on 37.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Vikings have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 56.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Since the start of last season, the anemic Houston Texans run defense has allowed a massive 3.59 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 32nd-worst rate in the league.

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