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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-129/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all RBs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 83rd percentile for rush attempts since the start of last season, comprising 50.6% of the workload in his offense's running game.

With a fantastic record of 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (91st percentile), Aaron Jones ranks among the best pure runners in the league since the start of last season.

Aaron Jones's running efficiency (4.94 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (88th percentile among RBs).

Aaron Jones profiles as one of the leading RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.49 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 95th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.5% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

Last year, the stout San Francisco 49ers run defense has given up a feeble 88.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the fewest in football.

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