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Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-133/-103).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -133.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Vikings, who are heavily favored by 7 points.In this game, Aaron Jones is projected by the projections to find himself in the 76th percentile among RBs with 14.6 carries.Out of all RBs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 88th percentile for carries this year, taking on 57.8% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.Aaron Jones's 72.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season illustrates a noteable progression in his running proficiency over last season's 61.0 rate.This year, the shaky Bears run defense has yielded a staggering 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the worst in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the least run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.2% run rate.The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Vikings have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.The Bears safeties project as the best group of safeties in football this year when it comes to run defense.
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