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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
  • The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to accrue 14.5 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
  • Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 88th percentile for carries this year, comprising 58.4% of the workload in his offense's run game.
  • Aaron Jones has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (77.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 4.40 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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