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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.

The model projects Aaron Jones to accrue 14.9 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 88th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 56.0% of the workload in his team's run game.

Aaron Jones has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (72.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).

This year, the imposing Chicago Bears run defense has conceded a meager 5.00 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 26th-smallest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league (37.5% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 56.1 per game on average).

The Chicago Bears safeties rank as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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