Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
The model projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 13.3 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
While Aaron Jones has garnered 38.2% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Green Bay's rushing attack in this contest at 48.9%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.

Favors Under

The Packers rank as the 9th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 36.5% run rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
Aaron Jones has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Aaron Jones's ground effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling just 4.03 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.13 rate last year.

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