Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Green Bay offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
Aaron Jones has generated 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league when it comes to RBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers as the 11th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
After comprising 49.6% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, Aaron Jones has been called on less the rushing attack this season, now comprising just 35.5%.
Aaron Jones's 4.0 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a significant reduction in his running ability over last season's 5.1 rate.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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