Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has garnered 49.2% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Aaron Jones has generated 63.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (90th percentile).
Aaron Jones's running effectiveness (5.12 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (95th percentile among running backs).
The Detroit Lions defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 5.02 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 10th-least run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 37.3% run rate.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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