Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 79th percentile for carries this year, making up 41.8% of the workload in his offense's ground game.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.
Aaron Jones has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Aaron Jones's rushing effectiveness has diminished this year, notching a mere 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.13 mark last year.

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