Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
In this contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 13.6 carries.
Out of all RBs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 80th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 47.3% of the workload in his team's run game.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
This year, the imposing Chargers run defense has yielded a mere 4.53 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's run game: the 24th-smallest rate in the league.

Favors Under

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Aaron Jones's 39.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a noteable reduction in his running ability over last year's 64.0 figure.
Aaron Jones's running effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 3.75 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.13 mark last season.

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