Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-110/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 81st percentile for carries this year, making up 45.8% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.
As it relates to run support (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.
This year, the anemic Steelers run defense has been torched for a monstrous 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 6th-most in the NFL.
The Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The projections expect the Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
Aaron Jones's 39.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a substantial regression in his running prowess over last year's 64.0 figure.
Aaron Jones's 4.0 adjusted yards per carry this year marks a meaningful drop-off in his rushing skills over last year's 5.1 rate.

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