Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has garnered 48.4% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Aaron Jones has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (80th percentile).
Aaron Jones's running effectiveness (5.34 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (81st percentile among RBs).
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 32.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in football (just 76 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

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