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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Aaron Jones has been given 42.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Aaron Jones has picked up 53.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (83rd percentile).

Aaron Jones's running efficiency has gotten a boost this year, totaling 6.69 yards-per-carry vs just 4.69 figure last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.9% run rate.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.

The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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