Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Aaron Jones has picked up 54.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (84th percentile).
Aaron Jones's rushing efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 8.58 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.69 rate last season.
Aaron Jones has been more successful in generating extra rushing yardage this year, accumulating 5.35 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.18 rate last year.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this season (37.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (49.9%).
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 90 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.