Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (+106/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has garnered 51.8% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Aaron Jones has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Aaron Jones's ground efficiency (5.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (85th percentile among RBs).
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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