Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 10.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been given 49.9% of his team's carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Aaron Jones has picked up 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (82nd percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 35.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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