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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+189/-277).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +191 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +189.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Jones has garnered 47.4% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-least run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.4% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 6th-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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