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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-277).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.

Aaron Jones has earned 44.4% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.

The Washington Commanders defensive tackles profile as the 7th-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 39.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least TDs in football (0.50 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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