Aaron Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 4:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (43.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The New York Giants linebackers project as the 4th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have run for the least touchdowns in the league (0.25 per game) vs. the New York Giants defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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