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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-272).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -272.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.2% red zone run rate.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.

Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-least touchdowns in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.

The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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