Aaron Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+211/-322).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -287 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -322.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has received 43.8% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least TDs in the league (0.58 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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