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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+167/-237).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +192 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Aaron Jones has been given 44.2% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

The Chicago Bears linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-least touchdowns in the league (0.83 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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