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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

Aaron Jones has been given 51.5% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.

Opposing offenses have run for the most TDs in football (1.58 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.

The Chicago Bears defensive tackles rank as the worst DT corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 39.1% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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