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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 12

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-249).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -191 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -249.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Jones has been given 48.3% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 38.7% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.

The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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