Aaron Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+187/-275).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +195 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +187.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has been given 45.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.3% red zone run rate.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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