Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 24, 2024 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Vikings.
The model projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 131.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Aaron Jones to accrue 5.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones's 24.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 15.4.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.0 plays per game.

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