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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to accrue 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Aaron Jones has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 12.5% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 90th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones is positioned as one of the leading RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 56.4 per game on average).

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

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