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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 5th-most in football.

In this week's game, Aaron Jones is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The 49ers linebackers profile as the worst unit in the league last year in pass coverage.

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